2021–2022 Myanmar civil war

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Myanmar Civil War
Part of the internal conflict in Myanmar
Myanmar in its region.svg
Date5 May 2021 – present
(1 year, 10 months, 3 weeks and 2 days)[7]
Location
Myanmar
Status Ongoing
Belligerents

National Unity Government

Communist Party of Burma

Allied ethnic armed organisations:

Supported by:

State Administration Council

Supported by:

Commanders and leaders
Strength
(PDF) >65,000 (excluding ethnic armed organizations and local defense forces)[8] 350,000–400,000 (Tatmadaw)[9]
Casualties and losses
  • Total Killed: 27,063 (per ACLED, 21 October 2022)[10]
  • 2,039 civilians killed, 11,310 arrested (per AAPP, 29 June 2022)[11]
  • 1,000,000 internally displaced (per OCHA, 31 May 2022)[12]
  • 11,400 residences destroyed (per ISP–Myanmar and Data for Myanmar, as of 12 May 2022)[13]
  • 12,000 civilian properties estimated burnt or destroyed since February 2022 (per OCHA, 31 May 2022)[12]
  • 440 houses and buildings sealed off by the Junta (per AAPP, February 2022.[14]

The Myanmar Civil War (Burmese: ၂၀၂၁-၂၀၂၂ မြန်မာနိုင်ငံ ပြည်သူ့ခုခံတွန်းလှန်စစ်), also called the Myanmar Spring Revolution, is an ongoing civil war following Myanmar's long-running insurgencies which escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d'etat and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests.[15][16] In the months following the coup, the opposition began to coalesce around the National Unity Government, which launched an offensive against the junta. By 2022, the opposition was controlling substantial, though sparsely populated, territory.[7][17][18][19][20][21] In many villages and towns, the junta's attacks drove out tens of thousands of people. UNOCHA said that as of early September 2022, 974,000 people had been internally displaced since the coup. Between the coup and June 2022, over 40,000 people fled into neighboring countries, including many from communities close to the borders that came under attack by junta forces.[22]

Background[edit]

See also: 2021 Myanmar coup d'état and 2021 Myanmar protests

On the morning of 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw successfully deposed the elected Myanmar government, forming a military junta. Former president Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi, and several other members of the National League for Democracy were detained during early morning raids and Min Aung Hlaing was placed as the Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services and de facto ruler of the nation.[23]

The exact motives behind the coup are unclear, and the Tatmadaw claims the 2020 general elections had 8.6 million voter irregularities in the days prior to the coup but presented no evidence. It is believed that the coup may have been a way to re-establish the military's long-reigning power over of the country which ended ten years prior.[24]

The bloody repression of anti-coup demonstrations led to the creation of armed groups to fight the State Administration Council, the military junta. Gathered under the name of the People's Defence Force (PDF) and under the orders of the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by former parliamentarians in office before the coup d'état, the PDF and the NUG officially declared a "defensive war" against the military regime in September 2021.[25] The ACLED estimated that as of 29 July 2022, around 23,521 people in total had been killed in the violence following the 2021 coup.[26][27]

Existing Conflict[edit]

Main article: Internal Conflict in Myanmar
See also: List of ethnic armed organisations

Insurgencies have been ongoing in Myanmar since 1948 and has largely been ethnic-based. Communist insurgencies and the Karen National Union were the primary opposition actors to the central government.[28][29] Over the course of the 20th century, several prominent ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) rose and fell in influence and control. Larger rebel factions such as the Kachin Independence Army formed in response to Ne Win's 1962 Burmese coup d'état and its increased political repression.[30] The 8888 Uprising in response to the totalitarian rule of Ne Win formed some of the first modern Bamar militias formed from protestors heading to areas under ethnic rebel control.

In the aftermath of the 8888 Uprising, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, later the State Peace and Development Council, formed a military junta. The Tatmadaw severely weakened ethnic insurgent groups, destroying most of their bases and stronghold through the 1990s.[31] By the time of the 2011-2015 Myanmar political reforms, the junta had regained control of many long-time rebel strongholds including Kokang and the KNU-controlled Karen State.[32][33]

As part of its political reforms and democratization, the 2008 Constitution created self-administered zones with increased autonomy. In 2015, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) was signed between 8 EAOs and the central government.[34] However, as soon as 2018, the NCA had already begun to fall apart due to alleged violations of the agreement by Tatmadaw soldiers entering EAO territories to build roads.[35] Many non-signatories continued the conflict. The most internationally known being the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army whose conflict in 2016 led to the Rohingya genocide by the central government in 2017.[36] In late 2016, four non-signatories of the NCA formed the Northern Alliance, including the Kachin Independence Army and Arakan Army, engaged in war with the central government and other EAOs.[37] After attacks continuing into 2020, a ceasefire was signed with Arakan Army.[38]

Prelude[edit]

Main article: 2021 Myanmar protests

Armed Protestors[edit]

In late March, it was reported that dozens of protesters had travelled to Myanmar's border areas to enlist in and train under one of the country's many insurgent groups,[39] elevating the risk of a countrywide civil war.[40] The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw also proposed the formation of a "federal armed force" to combat the military.[41] and in late March the Arakan Army (AA) threatened to end its ceasefire with the military should the latter "persist in massacring civilians".[42]

During late March, protesters increasingly begun arming themselves with homemade weapons such as guns in an attempt to defend themselves against attacks by the military. Simultaneously, clashes with soldiers and IED attacks against administrative buildings and police stations became more common as the trend of protesters using armed resistance rose.[43]

Renewed Ethnic Conflict[edit]

The unrest across the nation and increased need for junta troops in previously peaceful urban areas strengthened EAOs. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has already been on the offensive against the military since February and seized the military base of Alaw Bum near the town of Laiza on 25 March.[44] The next day, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) attacked a military base, killing 10 soldiers and taking others hostages in the first attack on the military since the protests began.[45] The following day saw the 2021 Kalay clashes, the first openly armed resistance by protesters in the town of Kalay against the junta. Protestors used homemade weapons against soldiers and security forces attacking a protest camp.[46]

The military junta declared that it would cease all military operations on 29 March and hold bilateral negotiations with ethnic armed groups. However, the KIA continued their offensives stating that the Myanmar Army had continued operations as usual.[44] Through April, the informal clashes intensified, such as on 8 April when protesters fought back against soldiers with hunting rifles and firebombs in a battle that resulted in 11 protesters' deaths. The same day, the country surpassed 600 deaths related to anti-coup protests since 1 February.[47]

Seven insurgent groups who were signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement aligned themselves with the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, including the All Burma Student Democratic Front and the Karen National Union.[48] The Northern Alliance, comprising the Arakan Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, attacked a police station in Naungmon, Shan State, killing at least 10 police officers and indicating their disregard of the junta's call for a ceasefire.[49] As a response, on 11 April, the junta military launched a counter-attack to recapture the Alaw Bum base, the base captured by KIA earlier, using airstrikes and ground troops but had to retreat amidst heavy casualties.[50]

New Conflicts[edit]

On 26 April, the Battle of Mindat became of the first large scale conflicts arising from the 2021 coup. The Chinland Defense Force began an armed resistance in Mindat, Chin State. As a response, the junta cut off food and water supplies and declared martial law.[51] Fighting began when a group of demonstrators outside the town's Aung San statue requested the release of six of their arrested colleagues, when a soldier of the regime allegedly fired at someone, prompting protesters to react.[52] According to an aid worker, more than 10,000 people have left Mindat in southern Chin State as the Myanmar military started an all-out operation to quell an armed revolt headed by local citizens.[53] In conclusion, the battle lasted four days, killing 30 junta soldiers with no casualties for the CDF, and Mindat has been a ghost town since.[54]

Onset of formal resistance[edit]

See also: Timeline of 2021–2022 Myanmar civil war

On 16 April, pro-democracy politician Min Ko Naing announced the formation of the National Unity Government, with people of ethnic minority groups among senior roles and said that ousted leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint would retain their positions and that members of the Kachin and Karen minorities would have top priority in the new parallel government. In the same announcement, Min Ko Naing asked the international community for recognition over the junta.[55][56]

The National Unity Government then declared the formation of an armed wing on 5 May, a date that is often cited as the start of the 2021-2022 Myanmar civil war. This armed wing was named the People's Defence Force (PDF) to protect its supporters from military junta attacks and as a first step towards a Federal Union Army.[57] The People's Defence Force clashed with the Tatmadaw in the town of Muse on 23 May, killing at least 13 members of Myanmar's security forces.[58][59]

Members of the Karenni People's Defence Force (KPDF) in Kayah State also captured and destroyed several Tatmadaw outposts near the state capital of Loikaw.[60] Towards the end of May, the Tatmadaw used artillery and helicopters to strike PDF and KPDF positions in Loikaw and Demoso.[61]

On 30 May, the Kachin Independence Army joined the anti-coup People's Defence Force battling junta troops in Katha Township, killing eight regime soldiers. Fighting was also continuing in Putao, Hpakant and Momauk Township.[62]

In early June, fighting erupted in Myawaddy District in which the military and Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) battling against a combined force of Karen ethnic armed groups and PDF had left dozens of junta troops killed.[63]

On 22 June, junta forces using armoured vehicles raided a safehouse of the PDF in Mandalay, detaining a number of fighters.[64] Myanmar security forces killed at least 25 people in a confrontation with opponents of the military junta in the central town of Tabayin.[65] 50 junta soldiers were reportedly killed in a series of landmine attacks by resistance fighters in Gangaw Township.[66] These attacks occurred in Central Myanmar, also known as Anyar, an area that had rarely seen armed violence in recent times.

Declaration of War[edit]

On 7 September, the NUG declared a state emergency across the nation and launched a people's defensive war against the military junta.[67][68]

The declaration of war increased the number of skirmishes and clashes between PDF militias, EAOs and the military junta across the country.[69] On 10 September, at least 17 people have been killed during clashes between the military and resistance militia in Myin Thar village, Magway region.[70] On 14 September, the National Unity Government claimed that over 1700 junta soldiers had been killed and 630 wounded in fighting during the previous three months.[71] Several major clashes took place from September to October in Chin State, Sagaing Region, Magwe Region Kayah State and Shan State.[72][73]

On 7 October, junta controlled media reported at least 406 junta informants had been killed and 285 wounded since 1 February in targeted attacks by resistance forces.[74] On the same day, Brigadier-General Phyo Thant, a senior commander of the North-western junta forces was reportely detained after allegedly contacting resistance forces with the intention to defect, making him the highest-ranking official to have attempted to defect so far.[75]

Humanitarian Crisis[edit]

By late September, 8,000 residents of Thantlang town, Chin state, fled to Mizoram, India after houses were set ablaze by the junta army.[76] On 28 September, at least 20 junta soldiers were reported killed in ambushes in Shan state. At least 4 resistance fighters died in the clashes, along with an unarmed 70 year old civilian.[77]

On 16 November, junta forces overran and captured the base camp of Kalay PDF in a southwestern district of the Sagaing Region town of Kalay. A total of 9 Kalay PDF medics were captured and 2 PDF fighters were killed, in which the PDF personnel were from the Kalay PDF's Battalion 3.[78]

2021 Dry Season Campaigns[edit]

In late November, the clashes and consolidations made by the renewed civil war and PDF militias, slowly lost momentum to a more mobilized junta campaign.

Shan and Kayah State[edit]

On 17 November, dozens of junta forces ambushed and captured an outpost of the Moebye PDF in southern Shan State's Pekon Township. The PDF fighters guarding the outpost were asleep when a military unit from Light Infantry Battalion 422 carried out an ambush. The junta forces had the resistance fighters surrounded resulting in the resistance fighters having to retreat from the outpost.[79] Later in November, junta soldiers in 10 military vehicles along with a bulldozer, ambushed and destroyed a base belonging to Monywa PDF's Squadron 205 near Palin village in Monywa, Sagaing Region, forcing resistance fighters to flee. The base was also the site of a workshop where the PDF had made explosive devices. During the raid, junta troops set fire to two such buildings where weapons had been stockpiled and successfully reoccupied the Palin village.[80] On 25 November, junta forces ambushed and killed 4 resistance fighters who were part of a scouting team of 6 men from Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDF) near the village of Hohpeik in Demoso Township.[81] On 28 November, the body of a dead PDF fighter who was previously captured by junta forces was found outside of a destroyed PDF base in the forested hills of the southeastern area of Madaya Township. The PDF fighter, Ye Thu Naing, was captured on 19 November and then forced to lead soldiers to the PDF base in which the soldiers then torched the base.[82] On 12 December, after 4 days of fierce fighting between combined force of KNDF and Karenni Army (KA) fighters and troops from the military's Light Infantry Battalion 428 and police at least 4 Tatmadaw soldiers were killed.[83]

14 December, around 200 Tatmadaw soldiers conducted a search in the town of Lay Kay Kaw Myothit, under the control of KNU Brigade 6 located near the Thai border. Tatmadaw troops then arrested several people believed to be linked to anti-junta movements including a NLD lawmaker, Wai Lin Aung. The Tatmadaw troops, who arrived in four convoys from Light Infantry Battalion 560, also searched Lay Kay Kaw's residential Nyein Chan Yay ward looking for activists and members of the People's Defence Force. KNU Brigade 6 spokesperson did not answer to calls which are to ask if the group had authorised the raid.[84] On 20 December, Tatmadaw forces left the village of Kunnar in Loikaw Township after capturing it from KNDF late last week. According to the KNDF member, there were around 130 troops stationed in Kunnar over the weekend. [85]

Christmas Eve massacre[edit]

Main article: Mo So massacre

On 24 December, more than 35 people were massacred when their convoy were ambushed by junta troops near Mo So village of Hpruso town, Kayah State. Two workers for non-profit group Save the Children remained missing after the attack.[86] The United Nations have called for a 'thorough and transparent investigation' into the incident.[citation needed]

Kachin State[edit]

In late November, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and 100 junta soldiers engaged in battle near Kachinthay, a village about 16 km east of the town of Shwegu. KIA refused to address rumours of them working with PDF militias and did not provide casualty figures. The clash occurred after an aerial bombardment allegedly carried out by 2 of the recently acquired Su-30 fighter jets that the Myanmar military have been testing.[87] On the same day, Matupi CDF teamed up with the Chin National Army to attack an outpost of Light Infantry Battalion 304 on the road linking Matupi to the town of Paletwa. The resistance forces only managed to kill 2 junta soldiers on guard duty before having to retreat.[88]The junta forces also carried out a night operation in December in which they captured and burned a camp of the Thein Min PDF (TM-PDF) after a heavy firefight. The resistance fighters were then forced to retreat, resulting in 2 TM-PDF fighters killed and several others injured.[89] A little under a week after the junta launched airstrikes against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Mohnyin, about 50 soldiers from Tatmadaw's Infantry Battalion 42 attacked KIA territory near Nyaung Htauk village in Mohnyin from 8am to 6pm. Another clash happened on the same day near Wailon village along the road linking Hpakant with Mohnyin, about 17 miles from Hpakant's urban centre. The junta's artillery unit fired around 30 shells at the site of the clash to support the advance of the infantry unit. KIA's information officer did not want to disclose the details of casualties on their side.[90]

Central Myanmar[edit]

Sagaing and Magway Regions[edit]

Salingyi G-Z Local PDF fighters and one civilian were captured and burned by junta soldiers shortly before locals found the smoldering remains of their burnt bodies. The PDF fighters had detonated explosives in an attack against a military convoy travelling nearby, triggering an assault on the village by some 100 junta soldiers. [91] On 9 December, resistance fighters from the Myaing People's Defence Force (PDF) in Magway Region attacked two military vehicles with 3 handmade explosives in an ambush in the early morning. PDF claimed the ambush injured at least 3 soldiers. Later at noon, PDF attacked soldiers again who were leaving the village of Mintharkya on foot, sparking a shootout between the two sides. However, there are no casualty reports on this particular clash.[92] The Tatmadaw forces also killed 4 PDF-appointed community guards and 3 PDF fighters as well as injuring 3 PDF fighters in the village of Guang Kwe in the Sagaing region during two days of fighting. The resistance fighters had to retreat after military employed heavy weapons and snipers.[93] On 13 December, Tatmadaw troops launched an offensive against PDF fighters and other local groups in Ke Bar village in Sagaing Region's Ayadaw Township with artillery bombardment assistance. The resistance fighters had to retreat due to the superior firepower of the assaulting Tatmadaw troops.[94] Depayin PDF leader reported that Tatmadaw forces have surrounded the Sagaing's Depayin Township where PDF fighters erre positioned. Over the month of December, the military sent around 150 soldiers of the Airborne Division in six helicopters to the west of Depayin to carry out Air Assault missions.[95] On 17 December 20 resistance fighters from Yaw Defence Force were killed after the Tatmadaw and members of the military-backed Pyu Saw Htee militia launched a surprise air assault on the village of Hnan Khar in Magway Region's Gangaw Township where YDF was holding a meeting. Three helicopters were involved in the air assault on the village.[96]

Mandalay[edit]

Tatmadaw troops killed 8 Mandalay civilian guerrilla groups when two resistance hideouts were raided. This came after the confession by a suspect involved in an attack against Tatmadaw troops, in which the Tatmadaw troops then raided the People's Defense Forces (PDF) in Maha Aung Myay and Pyigyidagun Townships. Fighting occurred at the Maha Aung Myay base and seven PDF members were killed and a junta soldier suffered a minor bullet wound in his stomach while another PDF fighter was killed in Pyigyitagon base after throwing a homemade bomb at junta forces and running away.[97]

Chin State[edit]

On 8 December, a 90-minute clash broke out between the CDF and Tatmadaw forces in military-occupied town of Thantlang. This was after Tatmadaw launched a major offensive against CDF that lead to the Tatmadaw forces being able to reoccupy the town from the CDF. 3 CDF fighters were reported to have died during the clash. More houses were burned in military-occupied Thantlang this week, with well over a quarter of the Chin State town's buildings now destroyed in 12 incidents, which makes it difficult for CDF rebels to hide in the buildings.[98]

Yangon[edit]

Tatmadaw soldiers captured 12 suspected resistance fighters including 3 injured fighters after several bombs exploded by accident in Yangon's Hlaing Thar Yar Township. 2 additional resistance fighters who escaped were also captured later on by plain clothed and armed Tatmadaw troops who were wearing bulletproof vests. There have been several other cases of guerrilla fighters across Myanmar dying in accidents caused by handmade explosives.[99]

Furthermore, a member of a local armed resistance group was shot dead and three others were captured during a military raid in Yangon Region's Thanlyin Township. The raid, which targeted a house located near the village of Laharyet, was carried out at around 9am. [100]

Early 2022[edit]

See also: 2022 in Myanmar
Military situation in Myanmar, February 2022

2022 saw a continuation of the varied clashes and skirmishes between PDF, EAOs and the junta. In early 2022, Arakan Army and the junta began clashing again in northern Rakhine State and Tanintharyi Region PDF saw increased activity.

New Clashes[edit]

On 31 January, at least three dozen junta soldiers were reported killed in ambushes over three days in Magwe, Sagaing and Tanintharyi regions and Chin, Shan and Kayah states.[101] 40 junta troops were killed in attacks by PDF forces on 12 and 13 February. The clashes occurred in the Naypyitaw, Magwe, Sagaing, Mandalay and Yangon regions. [102] In March, a local defence force based in Tanintharyi Region's Kawthaung District claimed that they managed to kill three Myanmar army soldiers, confiscate weapons and occupy a police station in the area.[103] Although both Tanintharyi and Naypyidaw had seen resistance before, early 2022 saw increased casualties in these areas.

On 2 February, 2 people were killed and 38 injured in a grenade attack following a pro junta rally.[104] The anniversary of the coup saw increase attacks in areas where resistance had died down in late 2021. Urban warfare became less practical and resistance forces began targeting junta-aligned officials. According to junta-aligned sources, 367 junta-appointed officials had been assassinated in targeted attacks since February 2021.[105] 35 junta soldiers had been killed in attacks by local PDFs in the Sagaing and Bago regions on 8 February.[106] Resistance forces also began targeting the homes of junta pilots in Yangon in response to airstrikes on civilians.[107]

On 8 February, the Arakan Army and junta forces had clashed on at least two occasions in Maungdaw in Rakhine State. Fighting broke out on 4 February when junta troops carried out a sneak attack on an AA outpost near the Letpan Mountains northeast of Mee Taik Village, killing an AA sentry, according to AA spokesman Khaing Thukha. Three hours of clashes were also reported on 6 February. The clashes raised fears of a breakdown of the informal ceasefire between the AA and the military which has been in place since November 2020.[108] Two civilians were also reported killed in further clashes in northern Maungdaw on the night of 7 February.[109]S everal junta troops, including a Major, were reported killed in the attack.[110]

Continued Clashes[edit]

At least 30 junta soldiers and allied militiamen from the Pyu Saw Htee militia were killed by joint PDF attacks in Kani Township, Sagaing Region on February 1st, 2022. Flotillas transporting supplies and soldiers by the junta were ambushed, with at least one flotilla set on fire during the attacks.[111] On 7 February, junta soldiers had been killed in surprise attacks by local PDFs in the Sagaing Region. These attacks were one of the first attacks where resistance forces used drones.[112] The Kachin Independence Army also claimed that around 200 junta soldiers, including a battalion commander, had been killed in three days of clashes in the Hpakant Township, Kachin State.[113]

On 10 February, during the same time as the increased targeted personnel attacks, around 50 Myanmar junta personnel were reportedly killed during raids and ambushes by people's defense forces in three townships in Sagaing Region on 9 February.[114] Later in February, 32 junta soldiers and 20 resistance fighters were killed in clashes in Mobye, southern Shan State as well as in Khin-U Township, Sagaing Region.[115][116]

Throughout March, the junta carries out repeated air bombing and looting of villages in Shan and Kayah State, attacking civilians, in what Amnesty International later accuses the junta of Collective Punishment[117]

On 30 March, around 20 junta soldiers were reported killed in ambushes targeting junta convoys in Mindat township, Chin state.[118]

Eastern Campaign[edit]

On the evening of 21 March, Brigade 6 of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) stormed and occupied a Tatmadaw camp in the village of Maw Khi in Wallay Myaing subtownship, Myawaddy District, Kayin State. The Maw Khi camp is located about 50 miles south of Myawaddy, about three miles from the Burmese-Thai border.[119] Eight Tatmadaw soldiers were killed according to Khit Thit Media.[120][better source needed]

Fighting broke out in parts of Loikaw City on 14 April.[121] Recent combat in Kayin state marked an increase in refugees on the Thai border.[122]

On 15 April, junta soldiers suffered at least 30 casualties after being pushed back by the KNLA at the battle for Lay Kay Kaw.[123] Later in April, two junta officers and 24 men working for the military council's electricity department were arrested by KNDF forces in southern Shan State's Pekon Township.[124]

2022 Monsoon Season Campaigns[edit]

With the monsoon season came a general decrease in warfare due to rain and mud.[69] Resistance forces, who were now all past the first anniversary of warfare, found the rain advantageous as the junta could not carry out air strikes as easily.[125]

On 17 May, National Unity Government Defence Minister Yee Mon asked for international help to arm resistance groups similar to support given to Ukraine.[126]

On 31 May, a bombing kills one person and injures nine others near the Sule Pagoda in Yangon, Myanmar. State media accuses the People's Defence Force of responsibility, which the PDF denies.[127]

In June, Resistance groups reach control of 40-50% of the country. Arakan Army claims to administer most of Rakhine State with an independent government. Chin National Front and Chinland Defense Force makes plans to establish a new government. Kachin Independence Army and United Wa State Army consolidate expanded territories.[128] However, the Myanmar Army retains tight control of almost every city in Myanmar and most of the country's natural resources, including important jade mines.[129]

In July, the Karen National Union stated that roughly 2,200 junta soldiers and militiamen had been killed since January 2022.[130] Around 40 junta soldiers and 11 PDF fighters were also reported killed in clashes in Pekon Township, Shan state.[131]

In September, retired Brigardier General Ohn Thwin, mentor to State Administration Council vice-chairman Senior General Soe Win, was assassinated by anti-regime guerilla groups in Yangon. This assassination increases security on high-ranking junta personnel as the highest ranked Myanmar army member to have been killed so far.[132]

Political Sentences and International Attention[edit]

On 23 July 2022, the State Administration Council announced that it had executed four political prisoners, including Zayar Thaw and Kyaw Min Yu, marking the first time the death penalty had been carried out in Myanmar since the late 1980s.[133][134] The event was widely seen as provocative escalation by the Burmese military in the ongoing conflict.[135][136] The international community, including United Nations Secretary-General, the G7 nations, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the European Union strongly condemned the executions.[137][138]

The military junta court sentenced former state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi to six years in prison for corruption in July.[139] On 2 September, Aung San Suu Kyi is sentenced to three years in prison after being found guilty of election fraud. She will now serve an overall sentence of 20 years in prison for different charges.[140]

On 16 August, two mortar shells fired from Myanmar Army landed in a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, killing one man and injuring five others. Myanmar Army helicopters allegedly entered Bangladeshi air space to attack Arakan Army and reportedly fired a shell within Bangladeshi air space. Two days later, Bangladesh summons Myanmar ambassador Aung Kyaw Moe to protest violation of land and airspace strongly.[141][142] Later in October, Bangladesh's Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen made a statement that border bombings by Myanmar stopped after he met Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming.[143]

On 16 September 2022, the Burmese military killed 11 children and wounded another 17, during an airborne strike at a school in Letyetkone village, Sagaing Region.[144] The military claimed that the village had been harboring resistance fighters from the Kachin Independence Army and the People's Defense Force.[145] The attack was widely condemned by the international community, including the United Nations and European Union.[146][147]

2022 Dry Season Campaign[edit]

Increased Resistance Efforts[edit]

In mid-October, NUG issued a statement calling for the victory of the Spring Revolution by the end of 2023. This call to action was followed by increased fighting in urban areas and in Southeastern Myanmr with resistance forces.[148] This came in the way of the junta torching at least 20 villages in the Sagaing and Magway regions in order to implement its "four cuts" strategy of attacking civilians to weaken anti-regime movements. However, according to Sagaing-based resistance spokespeople, people who lose everything in these torchings join the resistance[149] These actions may come to define the dry season's increased potential for semi-conventional warefare. The urgency of the resistance may also be ahead of the looming elections planned by the State Administration Council.[148]

The resistance forces also saw major developments. The Karen National Liberation Army stepped-up fighting in southeastern Myanmar and besieged Kawkareik in what looked briefly as the first seizure of major city by the resistance.[148] Fighting broke out early 21 October when a series of surprise attacks near the highway leading into the city and at government offices within the city. Resistance forces ultimately withdrew two days later after facing junta air strikes.[150][151] Four days later, undeterred KNLA-led forces seized the junta base of Light Infantry Battalion 339 in Kya Inn Seikgyi Township, Karen State.[152] On 28 October, airstrikes from the junta as part of continued fighting near Kawkareik struck a dam, damaging the dam.[153] Chin state resistance forces used drones in a week-long siege of an outpost in Falam Township, killing 74% of the junta forces stationed. The forces ultimately were unable to take the outpost due to the Air Force's aerial bombardments.[154]

November also saw increased resistance from Bago Region across the region. In Monyo Township,western Bago Region, PDF attacked a police building using cluster bombs.[155] In eastern Bago, 15 Junta soldiers were killed on a Bago PDF raid on a police station in Yedashe Township[156] Thousands of civilians also fled Shwegyin Township as resistance forces seized three military outposts. This joint operation between the KNU and the NUG's PaKaBha was one of the first major uses of the PaKaBha, a shadow township defence force controlled directly by the NUG's Ministry of Defence.[157]

Junta Retaliation and Atrocities[edit]

See also: Hpakant massacre

October saw many increased battles and skirmishes, but also several civilian atrocities from the Junta. On 21 October, Junta forces decapitated Saw Tun Moe, a high school teacher, and left his head impaled on a NUG-administered school's spiked gate after burning and looting Taung Myint village in Magway Region[158] Two days later, on 23 October, over 80 people were killed by an airstrike in Hpakant township, Northern Myanmar during a celebration for the 62nd founding anniversary of the Kachin Independence Organization. It became the single deadliest attack on civilians (hence the term Hpakant massacre) since the start of the renewed civil war. The Junta denied there being civilian casualties while the United Nations condemned the attack. Reportedly among the dead was a singer and keyboard player performing at the event.[159] In November, the junta continued burning villages in Sagaing Region including the home of Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, the head of the Catholic Church in Myanmar.[160]

In November, resistance forces' ability to hold onto strategic positions and outposts weakened as the dry season allowed greater use of the Myanmar Air Force. During the week of 21 November, repeated junta air attacks along the Sagaing-Kachin border near Mohnyin Township and Banmauk Township killed 80 and potentially disrupted supply chains between the two resistance regions. Some analysts say that the heavy use of air forces indicated a lessened ability for the junta to fight on the ground.[161] On the ground, the junta continued its scorched earth campaign across northern Myanmar, including burning stations they could no longer defend.[162] The campaign formed thousands of residents to flee as hundreds of homes were destroyed.[163] Aerial bombardment, helicopter raids and artillery strikes typically followed skirmishes once junta forces sustained substantial losses and retreated. Once the entrapped junta forces were relieved by aerial support, they would engage in scorched earth tactics. World War Two veterans of the area compare the destruction to be worse than Imperial Japan as civilian villages were not targeted during the war.[164]

On 26 November, the Arakan Army and the Junta agreed to a temporary ceasefire starting on 27 November. Yōhei Sasakawa of the Nippon Foundation brokered the ceasefire by acting as an intermediary. Arakan Army spokespeople maintain that they agreed to it for humanitarian reasons and not because of international pressure. The Arakan Army did not withdraw from fortifications held at the time of the ceasefire.[165] Junta spokespeople say that this is the first step towards a permanent ceasefire with the Arakan Army.[166]

Humanitarian conditions[edit]

The human rights situation in Myanmar has deteriorated substantially since the beginning of the civil conflict. As of September 2022, 1.3 million people have been internally displaced, and over 13,000 children have been killed.[167] [168] The Burmese military has escalated its use of war crimes, including murder, sexual violence, torture, and targeting of civilians.[167][169] Since the onset of the civil conflict, both the Burmese military and resistance forces alike have used educational facilities as bases and detention sites.[170] In 2021, over 190 violent attacks on schools were reported in 13 of Myanmar's states and regions.[170] As of June 2022, 7.8 million children remained out of school.[171] The junta has also seized the properties of political opponents as part of an intimidation strategy, impacting hundreds of families.[172] Myanmar's public health system has effectively collapsed.[173]

The civil war has worsened the country's food security crisis, with one in four people experiencing food insecurity.[174] Poverty and food insecurity have disproportionately affected Myanmar's Dry Zone and the Irrawaddy delta regions, which account for over 80% of the country's agricultural area, and are home to a third of the country's population.[175]

Economic impact[edit]

Economic conditions in Myanmar have substantially worsened due to the ongoing war and economic mismanagement by the State Administration Council.[176][177] In 2021, Myanmar's GDP declined by 5.9%.[178] Between March and June 2022, almost 10,000 people per month left the country through official channels, worsening the country's brain drain and mirroring the civilian exodus that followed the 1962 and 1988 military coups.[179][180] The local job market has collapsed.[180] As of September 2022, the value of the Burmese kyat has depreciated by over 60%,[181] while basic commodity prices have increased by up to 57%.[177] The World Bank estimates Myanmar's economy to contract by another 18% in 2022.[182] Since April 2022, the country has experienced foreign currency shortages, which have acutely impacted importers, resulting in shortages of basic products like medicines and fertilisers.[183] The military regime has imposed foreign currency controls, which has worsened the shortage of US dollars among international firms operating in the country.[184] Many foreign and multinational companies, including Telenor, Ooredoo, Chevron, British American Tobacco, and Woodside Petroleum have exited the Burmese market as the conflict has intensified.[185] In September 2022, the G7-led Financial Action Task Force (FATF) announced plans to blacklist Myanmar for failing to stem money laundering and terrorist financing.[186] Currently only Iran and North Korea are on the Financial Action Task Force blacklist.[186] In October 2022, Myanmar was blacklisted by FATF, which increased volatility in the value of the Burmese kyat.[187]

See also[edit]

External links[edit]

References[edit]

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